NBA contract history · price a deal

What have similar deals cost?

The past signings whose players looked most like this one in the season before they signed: what those deals cost in first-year % of the cap, how long they ran, and how they turned out.

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How comparable deals are chosen
  • Pool: standard signings since 2014-15 (extensions, re-signings, new signings) with a stated length and value, the same records Signing trends uses. Each is described by the last graded season (500+ minutes) among the three completed seasons before signing. A missed latest season is marked, and an older rating receives a similarity penalty.
  • Deal context first: rookie-scale extension and veteran extension price tiers are separate pools before rating, minutes, age and position determine closeness. Auto uses a recent signed extension when one exists; otherwise a first-round player near the end of a rookie deal starts in the 25% tier. Select another context to test a Rose-rule 30% or veteran-max scenario. The bands classify observed first-year prices, not legal eligibility; no deal is added just to fill the requested count.
  • Closeness: within that context, differences in rating, minutes and age are scaled by how much they vary across the pool (rating counts most), plus a fixed step for a different position group (guards, wings, bigs). The player's own past deals are left out; they are in the player panel.
  • Price: first-year salary as a % of that season's cap, the way front offices quote it (a supermax is 35%). From the season files through 2025-26, from Spotrac's schedule after that; marked AAV when neither has the season and the average salary is used, which reads high for an escalating deal.
  • Impact shown: the table can show the last graded season, best of the two preceding seasons, or their minutes-weighted rating. If both are unavailable, it labels a fallback one further season back. The two underlying seasons stay visible. A before-start view is hindsight for extensions signed ahead of their first paid year; it never changes the at-signing ranking or turns later evidence into something known at signing.
  • Production value: the player's WAR translated to dollars using that season's estimated cost per win, then divided by that season's cap. Prior surplus wins compare that production with wins purchased by the salary paid in that preceding season. Both use the selected LEBRON or DARKO model and a snapshot of Value Board's player-season fields. For a two-season blend, available season values are weighted by minutes; missed seasons have no value reading. The similarity rating comes from the season files, which may use a different provider update than the Value Board snapshot. These are historical estimates, not a forecast of the new contract.
  • First season: an extension starts after the player's previous deal ends, not when it was signed. When the log can't show where the old deal ends (a renegotiate-and-extend, an unrecorded option), the season the player's salary steps up to the new deal's level is used. A deal with no such step can still be a season off (Dončić 2025).
  • Turned out: average surplus per played season, the Outcomes tab's measure (the tier's market price minus what the deal paid), with a dot per season in Team depth's tier colors.